Path and Focus WISH Probabilistic Burn Map

Simulation Setup

• Ignition Points: A square perimeter is defined around the community, seeded with evenly spaced ignition points approximately 100 meters apart. Ignition points are filtered to exclude water bodies and other non-fuel areas to ensure realistic fire scenarios
• Weather Data: Synthetic 10-year, 80th percentile weather conditions based on the previous decade (excluding the current year)
• Fuel Data: National fuel layer describing vegetation and fuel characteristics across the entire United States
• Burn Period: Each simulation runs for an 8-hour burn period

Analysis Process

For each of the 5,000 simulations, we randomly select an ignition point and a weather day from our synthetic dataset. After running all simulations, we analyze every pixel in the study area: if a pixel burned in a simulation, we count it. The burn probability for each pixel is calculated as the percentage of simulations in which it burned. The resulting burn probability map is then cropped from the larger ignition point grid to focus on the community area of interest.

Understanding Burn Probability

The burn probability map answers the question: "If a fire were to start anywhere within the ignition boundary, what is the probability that a given pixel will burn?" Higher probabilities indicate areas at greater risk of burning under the modeled conditions.

Top Fire Scenarios

From our 5,000 simulations, we've identified and visualized the top 10 largest fires by area burned. These represent example burn scenarios from our simulation set and can be explored using the dropdown menu on the map above.